OMAHA, Nebraska --The Midwest economy In February turned back months of decline. A survey of regional business leaders in nine states has it's most positive showing since last summer.
February's Mid-America Business Conditions Index climbed to 56.1 from 47.0 in January.
"This is above growth-neutral after three straight months of below growth-neutral readings. This was a shocker for me," says Creighton University Economics Professor Ernie Goss.
An index reading of 50 is considered growth-neutral, any number of above indicates growth.
He says positive economic growth last month is being tempered by ongoing high inflation--he says the survey's wholesale inflation gauge is also at it's highest point in six months.
"Eighty-point-six is obviously showing some significant inflationary pressures. It's also the highest level we've recorded since July of 2022," Goss says.
He says it's that ongoing inflation, and the Federal Reserve's efforts to control it, that make him pessimistic about the regional economy for the rest of the year.
"Even with the really significant bounce for the month of February, we're still talking about slow to no growth the regional economy," Goss says.
He says he thinks the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month, and maybe again in it's meeting after that--all in an ongoing effort to control inflation.
The Mid-America Business Conditions Index is a monthly survey of business leaders in Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.