OMAHA, Nebraska -- The Midwest economy is showing a little more strength in September.
"Creighton's monthly survey was up a bit, but we're still seeing a slowing manufacturing economy and that's what we're faced with right now," says Creighton University Economist Ernie Goss.
He says the new nine-state Mid-America Business Conditions Index increased to 52.5 in September--up from from 49.5 in August. The Index's 0 to 100 scale has a rating of 50 as growth neutral.
Goss says while the overall economy is stronger than it was in August, recession continues to loom on the horizon.
"Almost 50 percent (of supply managers in the survey) expect a recession no later than the first quarter of 2024," he says.
As for inflation, Goss says he thinks there's at least one more interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve coming before the end of the year.
"I think the Fed's going to hold off on a rate hike at their meeting October 30th through November 1st. But I do expect a rate hike in December--the Fed's following meeting,” he says,
The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine Midwest states since 1994.
States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.