October WASDE is a bit bullish


WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels, on the combination of lower beginning stocks and production as indicated by the NASS Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports, respectively. Partly offsetting are lower imports, with all the reduction for Durum. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report indicated greater first quarter disappearance than previously estimated. Exports remain at 975 million bushels due to offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 42 million bushels to 883 million, which would be the lowest ending stocks in six years. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $4.70 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised 2.2 million tons to 1,072.5 million, mostly on Russia’s production increasing 5.0 million tons to 83.0 million, which is the second-largest crop on record, following 2017/18. The increased production is based on updated harvest results as reported by Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture, which imply record-high spring wheat yields. Russia’s increased production more than offsets reductions in Ukraine, Canada, Argentina, and the United States. Ukraine’s production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 25.5 million, based on Ukraine’s State Statistics Service estimates. Canada’s production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million, primarily on the updated Statistics Canada forecast issued September 14. Argentina’s production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 19.0 million on continued dry conditions in some regions. World consumption is increased fractionally to 751.0 million tons, primarily on higher feed and residual usage for Russia and greater food, seed, and industrial use in Pakistan and EU more than offsetting lower feed and residual use for Ukraine and Canada. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 0.5 million tons to 189.9 million on higher exports for Russia more than offsetting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. Russia’s exports are raised 1.5 million tons to 39.0 million, which are the second highest on record. The largest import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, each raised 0.5 million tons. China’s imports are raised on a strong early pace and are now 7.5 million tons, making China the third largest global importer for 2020/21. Pakistan imports are now 1.5 million tons, raising stocks which have been relatively tight recently. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are raised 2.1 million tons to 321.5 million to a new record, with Russia accounting for most of the increase this month.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bushels, down 178 million with a reduction in harvested area and a slight decline in yield to 178.4 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month, on a smaller crop and lower beginning stocks. Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels, based on weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration into early October. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on a reduced crop and higher expected prices. Corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered 336 million bushels. The corn price is raised 10 cents to $3.60 per bushel. Grain sorghum production is forecast higher from last month, with a 0.2-bushel per acre increase in the yield to 74.1 bushels per acre and an increase in harvested area. Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast lower to 1,458.8 million tons. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, increased use, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly higher with increases for several countries, including Serbia, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Burkina, and Mali more than offsetting declines for Ukraine and the EU. The projected corn yield for Ukraine is lowered based on reported harvest results to date. Corn exports are raised for Serbia but lowered for Ukraine and the EU. For 2019/20, corn exports for Argentina are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on larger-than-expected shipments through September. For 2020/21, corn imports are lowered for the EU, Iran, and Kenya, but raised for Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, the EU, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 300.5 million tons, are down 6.3 million from last month.

RICE: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised as NASS increased the all rice production forecast by 1.3 million cwt to 226.3 million, on higher harvested area and yields. The all rice yield is forecast at 7,567 pounds per acre, up 38 pounds from the previous forecast. Supplies are also increased on higher projected imports, which are raised by 0.5 million cwt to 37.3 million, with all the increase for long grain. This nearly matches last year’s record imports as strong demand for Asian aromatics is expected to continue for 2020/21. Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.8 million cwt to 47.7 million, up 66 percent from last year. The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $12.80. The 2020/21 global outlook is for smaller supplies, greater consumption, lower trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are lowered 2.7 million tons to 678.6 million, primarily on reduced beginning stocks for India as its combined 2019/20 consumption and exports are raised 5.0 million tons. India’s consumption is increased on the introduction of government food assistance programs to address economic disruptions caused by COVID-19. India’s exports are raised on its recent robust monthly shipment pace. World production for 2020/21 is raised 1.9 million tons to a record 501.5 million, mainly on higher projected output for India and the Philippines. Global 2020/21 consumption is raised by 3.0 million tons to a record 499.4 million, primarily on increases for India and Thailand. World trade is decreased 0.2 million tons to 44.3 million tons as higher exports for India are more than offset by reductions for Thailand and Pakistan. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 5.7 million tons to 179.2 million, still a record, with China and India accounting for 65 and 18 percent of the total, respectively.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 126.6 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset with higher canola and sunflower seed. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 45 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is reduced 0.7 million acres to 82.3 million, with reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The soybean yield is projected at 51.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast. Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, down 96 million on lower production and beginning stocks. Despite reduced supplies, soybean exports are raised 75 million bushels on record early-season sales. With smaller supplies and increased exports, ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, down 170 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $9.80 per bushel, up 55 cents reflecting smaller supplies and higher exports. The soybean meal price is forecast at $335.00 per short ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound. The 2020/21 foreign oilseed production is lowered 2.6 million tons to 478.9 million mainly on lower sunflower seed production for Ukraine, the EU, Moldova, and Argentina. Ukraine’s sunflower seed output is lowered 2 million tons to 15 million on drought conditions during the season and harvest results to date. Dryness also impacted yield prospects for Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. Lower sunflower seed production for Ukraine results in lower global sunflower meal and oil exports. Partly offsetting are higher exports of palm oil from Malaysia and rapeseed meal from Russia. The 2020/21 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered mainly on higher 2019/20 crush for China that is partly offset by lower exports and higher stocks for Brazil. The 2020/21 soybean imports, crush, and meal consumption are higher for China, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam, aligning with prior year increases in domestic meal use. Argentina’s exports are lowered 0.5 million tons due to stronger competition from the United States. With lower supplies in the United States and higher foreign use, global ending stocks are reduced 4.9 million tons to 88.7 million.

SUGAR: U.S. beet sugar production for 2019/20 is increased by 50,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 4.293 million due to an increase in projected August-September production from the 2020/21 crop year sugarbeet harvest. Beet sugar production for 2020/21 is increased by 41,095 STRV to 5.206 million on a 1.9 percent increase made by NASS for sugarbeet area less the projected 50,000-STRV produced in August and September. Similarly, cane sugar production in Louisiana for 2019/20 is increased by 90,243 STRV on stronger-than-expected production occurring in September. However, the consequent decrease in fiscal year 2020/21 production to 1.785 million STRV is only 65,246 because it is expected that the recent trend toward increased September production in Louisiana will continue. The projection for September 2021 is 54,754 STRV, the average of the previous five years. Many exporters with raw sugar TRQ access have taken advantage of the extension of the quota year to the end of October by deferring shipments expected in September into October. The 22,047 STRV shortfall linked to the September TRQ increase is eliminated because allocations made by USTR after last month’s WASDE to Brazil and Australia are expected to be filled. Estimated re-export imports for 2019/20 are increased to 432,405 STRV and high-tier imports for 2019/20 are increased to 250,631 STRV. Both of these changes are made on the basis of Customs reporting. Deliveries for human consumption for 2019/20 are increased by 50,000 STRV to 12,220 million on the pace to date. Deliveries for 2020/21 correspondingly are increased by 50,000 STRV to 12,220 million. Exports for 2019/20 are increased by 10,000 STRV to 45,000 on the pace to date. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are estimated at 1.702 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.8 percent. Ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 1.749 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent. Mexico sugar supply and use for 2019/20 has small changes including an increase in imports of sugar for consumption, a small decrease for exports to non-U.S. destinations, and reduced deliveries with a decrease in those for consumption only partially offset by an increase for the IMMEX program. These changes are made on the basis of the pace to date. The net result is to increase ending stocks by 39,505 metric tons (MT). High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) deliveries for 2019/20 are reduced by 30,000 MT, dry weight, to 1.380 million on the current pace. For 2020/21, deliveries to IMMEX are increased by 20,000 MT. There is a small increase in ending stocks based on delivery projections for the initial 2.5-month period in 2021/22 before the production campaign begins. Exports to non-U.S. destinations are residually increased by 15,338 MT. Projected deliveries of HFCS for 2020/21 are unchanged at 1.470 million MT, dry weight.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised from the previous month on higher expected second-half cattle slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on lower second-half commercial hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights. The broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised on production data to date. The egg production forecast is raised slightly from last month. For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef production is raised from last month on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production is raised on higher forecast commercial hog slaughter. The 2021 broiler production forecast is also raised from last month on slightly more rapid production growth, but the turkey production forecast is unchanged. Egg supply and use tables are revised to reflect changes in egg stock numbers. Information on the changes and historical supply and use data can be found at: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/historical-revisions The 2020 beef import forecast is raised on recent trade data and continued firm import demand for processing grade beef, while exports are unchanged. For 2021, the beef import forecast is raised, while the beef export forecast is lowered on slower expected global demand. The 2020 and 2021 pork export forecasts are lowered from last month on weakness in global import demand. The 2020 and 2021 broiler export forecasts are raised from last month. Egg exports for 2020 are raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2021 export forecast. The cattle price forecasts for 2020 is raised on current price strength and robust beef demand; this increase in price strength was carried into early 2021. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2020 and 2021 on current price movements and continued strength in demand. The 2020 broiler price forecast is virtually unchanged from last month but is reduced for 2021 on expected supply pressure. The turkey price forecasts for 2020 and 2021 are raised. The 2020 egg price forecast is increased on current strength in prices, but 2021 price forecast is unchanged. The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from the previous month on slightly higher cow numbers and a more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow. For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is unchanged while the export forecast is reduced on lower exports of butterfat products. The skim-solids import forecast remains unchanged, but the export forecast is reduced on lower dry whey and lactose shipments. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised from last month, while the whey forecast is unchanged. The 2020 forecast for butter is reduced. The Class III price forecast is raised on the higher cheese price forecast. The Class IV price forecast is also raised as the higher NDM price more than offsets the lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is raised to $18.00 per cwt. For 2021, a larger dairy herd and higher milk per cow are expected to support higher milk production from last month. The fat basis import forecast is unchanged, while the fat basis export forecast is lowered on weak global import demand for butterfat products. The skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged, while the export forecast is raised on expected robust international demand for skim milk powder and whey products. Dairy product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised from last month. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised on higher product prices. The all milk price forecast is raised to $17.60 per cwt for 2021.

COTTON: The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show marginally lower production compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1 percent, to 17.0 million bales. Domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks are unchanged. At 7.2 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected at 42 percent of use, compared with 41 percent in 2019/20. The 2020/21 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 61.0 cents per pound, 2 cents higher than last month and slightly above the final 2019/20 price of 59.6 cents. The 2020/21 world cotton supply and demand forecasts feature lower production, higher consumption and trade, and lower ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered more than 900,000 bales with declines in Mali, Pakistan, and Greece offsetting a larger expected crop in Nigeria. Consumption is 1.5 million bales higher, largely reflecting revisions for China and India. World trade is projected about 500,000 bales higher this month, reflecting a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports, and on the export side, higher exports by Brazil and Uzbekistan offsetting a decline for Mali. World ending stocks in 2020/21 are now projected 2.7 million bales lower than in September, at 101.1 million bales, equivalent to 89 percent of consumption.