WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are raised as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,898 million bushels, up 26 million from last month on increased Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offsetting lower White Winter production. The all wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Beginning stocks declined due to higher 2020/21 exports, which were raised 20 million bushels to 985 million, primarily on larger recent monthly exports. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively with corn in the summer months. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are lowered 4 million bushels to 770 million, down 10 percent from the revised 2020/21 ending stocks. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.50 per bushel, compared to $5.05 for 2020/21, which is also unchanged this month. The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 4.3 million tons to 1,087.9 million, mainly on higher production for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine as world production is projected at a record 794.4 million. The EU is raised 3.5 million tons to 137.5 million on recent beneficial precipitation across Northern and Central Europe. The largest increases are for Germany, France, and Romania. Russia’s production is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 86.0 million. Winter wheat production is increased on a higher yield with widespread spring rainfall across Western Russia, while spring wheat is raised on higher area, based on Agricultural Ministry estimates. Ukraine is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 29.5 million on continued favorable weather conditions. Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 2.4 million tons to a record 791.1 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use by the EU and Russia on increased supplies. Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 203.2 million, on increased exports by Ukraine and India. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 296.8 million with China accounting for 48 percent of the total.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down 150 million bushels reflecting projected increases for 2020/21 in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn used for ethanol is raised 75 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and weekly ethanol production and refiner and blender net inputs data during May which indicate demand is almost back to levels seen prior to COVID-19. Exports are raised 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for the month of May that implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, despite high prices. With no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are lowered 150 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel. This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, marginally higher trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Barley production is raised for the EU, mostly reflecting forecast increases for Germany and France that are partly offset by a reduction for Spain. Barley production is also lowered for Turkey. Brazil corn production for 2020/21 is reduced on lower yield expectations for second-crop corn, based on below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during the month of May. Partly offsetting is greater indicated area for the second and third crops. Major global trade changes for 2021/22 include larger forecast barley exports for the EU with increased imports for China. For 2020/21, Brazil’s corn exports are lowered for the marketing year beginning March 2021. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised relative to last month, mostly reflecting increases for Pakistan and South Africa that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.
RICE: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for smaller supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and reduced ending stocks. All of the 2021/22 changes are the result of 2020/21 trade revisions. The 2021/22 all rice beginning stocks are reduced 2.0 million cwt to 40.9 million, due to a combination of lower imports and higher exports for 2020/21. All rice 2020/21 imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 34.7 million on reduced volumes from Asia in recent months. All rice 2020/21 exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 92.0 million, primarily on increased export sales and shipments to Venezuela. Both of these trade changes are for long-grain. Since there are no other 2021/22 supply changes and no changes to the use categories, 2021/22 projected ending stocks are reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 39.0 million. The 2021/22 all rice season average farm price is unchanged at $14.20 per cwt, compared to $13.90 for 2020/21, which is also unchanged this month. The 2021/22 global outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption and trade, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised by 1.6 million tons to 682.9 million, primarily on a combination of higher beginning stocks for China and Bangladesh and increased production for India. World production is raised to a record 506.6 million tons, mainly on higher production for India, as its harvested area is expected to remain at the same level as 2020/21, which was also raised this month. World 2021/22 consumption is raised by 1.2 million tons to a record 514.5 million, mainly on India’s increased supplies. Global 2021/22 trade is raised 0.5 million tons to 47.0 million, primarily on higher exports by India. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million with China accounting for 65 percent of the total.
OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.175 billion based on a lower forecast for soybean meal domestic disappearance and higher soybean meal imports. Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely, soybean oil domestic disappearance is increased 225 million pounds, reflecting strong consumption to date. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from last month. The 2021/22 season-average soybean and product price forecasts are unchanged this month. The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is forecast up 0.6 million tons to 632.9 million, with higher canola production partly offset by lower cottonseed. EU canola production is increased 0.6 million to 17.2 million as cool spring weather coupled with timely May rainfall boosted yield prospects particularly for France, Germany, and Poland. Australian canola production is also revised up 0.2 million tons to 3.7 million on higher area harvested and yield. Global 2021/22 soybean ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 92.6 million, driven by higher beginning stocks for the United States and Brazil. Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 137.0 million, mainly on higher yields for Mato Grosso do Sul. Another notable oilseed change includes a 0.5-million-ton reduction to 18.5 million for Malaysian 2020/21 palm oil production due to lower-than-expected recent monthly output.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supplies for 2020/21 are decreased by 50,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower re-export imports. Re-export imports for 2020/21 are estimated at 250,000 STRV and are lowered on the basis of the pace to date. There are no other changes, implying that beginning stocks for 2021/22 are lower by the 50,000-STRV amount. There are no other changes to supply or use for 2021/22. With no announcement on the 2021/22 U.S. additional specialty TRQ, total TRQ imports are still at minimum levels consistent with WTO and FTA bindings. Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 1.452 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 11.84 percent. Mexico sugar production for 2020/21 is estimated at 5.700 million metric tons (MT), a reduction of 125,000 due to a campaign cut short by an early onset of seasonal rains in several regional production areas. Exports other than those to the United States under the Suspension Agreement provisions are reduced by the 125,000-MT amount, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 910,417 MT. There are no changes to Mexico supply or use for 2021/22.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2021 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher forecast beef, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets lower pork production. The increase in beef production is small as higher expected cow slaughter is largely offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production is lowered as higher expected slaughter is more than offset by lower carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised primarily on higher production in the second quarter while turkey production is raised on hatchery data and a more rapid pace of slaughter. Egg production is raised from the previous month on recent hatchery data. The 2022 red meat and poultry production forecast is little changed from last month with only a slight increase in turkey production due to expected improvement in turkey prices. The beef import forecast is raised for 2021 and 2022 on expected strength in demand for processing beef. Exports for both years are raised on expected firm demand from Asian markets. Pork export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are raised from the previous month as demand in several markets has strengthened. Broiler and turkey export forecasts for 2021 are raised on recent trade data; no change is made to 2022. For 2021, cattle, hog, and turkey price forecasts are raised, reflecting current price strength. Hog and turkey prices are also raised for the first quarter of 2022. Broiler and egg price forecasts are reduced for second quarter 2021 based on current prices; no changes are made to prices in the outlying quarters. Milk production for 2021 is raised from last month on higher expected cow numbers. The fat basis import forecast is reduced from the previous month on lower expected imports of butterfat containing products, while the skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged. Exports on both fat and skims-solids bases are raised from last month. Fat basis export increases are underpinned largely by higher shipments of butterfat-containing products and cheese, while skim-solids increases primarily reflect stronger expected cheese, lactose, and whey shipments. Price forecasts for butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand. The cheese price forecast is lowered from last month on relatively large stocks and current prices. The lower forecast cheese price results in a lower Class III price, but the higher NDM and butter prices support result in a higher Class IV price. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $18.85 per cwt for 2021. The 2022 milk production forecast is raised from last month as higher forecast cow numbers for 2021 carry into 2022. Import forecasts are unchanged. The fat basis export forecast is unchanged, but the skim-solids export forecast is increased on expected strength in whey exports. For 2022, butter, NDM, and whey price forecasts are raised from the previous month while the cheese price is unchanged. Thus, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month. The all milk price forecast is raised to $18.75 per cwt for 2022.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2021/22 show a 100,000-bale increase in exports from last month, to 14.8 million bales, as stronger than expected late-season 2020/21 shipments extend past July 31. U.S. 2021/22 production and consumption are unchanged from last month, and with lower beginning stocks and higher exports, ending stocks are now 200,000 bales lower, at 2.9 million. The upland cotton farm price for 2021/22 is unchanged, at 75 cents per pound, while the 2020/21 price is reduced 1 cent to 67 cents per pound. Global ending stocks in 2021/22 are also projected lower this month, down 1.7 million bales to 89.3 million. Beginning stocks are slightly lower as a 625,000-bale increase in 2020/21 consumption more than offsets higher estimated supplies. Consumption is also higher for 2021/22, up 1.1 million bales, as increases for China, Bangladesh, and Turkey offset a lower forecast for India. Global cotton production in 2021/22 is 570,000 bales lower this month, led by a 750,000-bale reduction in China following recent surveys indicating lower than expected area in Southern Xinjiang. World trade is 1.1 million bales higher, with increased imports for China, Bangladesh, and Turkey. Expected exports are higher this month for Brazil, Australia, and Tanzania, as well as the United States.