June WASDE report shows increased corn stocks, decreased soybean stocks

WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1,737 million bushels, up 8 million from last month. NASS raised winter wheat production to 1,182 million bushels as increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter. The all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4 percent from 2021/22. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021/22. The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, fractionally lower trade, and slightly lower ending stocks. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production more than offsets an increase for Russia. India’s production is lowered 2.5 million tons to 106.0 million as extreme temperatures in March and April reduced yields during grain fill. Russia’s production is raised 1.0 million tons to 81.0 million with all of the increase in winter wheat on generally favorable weather conditions to date. Projected 2022/23 world consumption is reduced 1.5 million tons to 786.0 million mainly on lower feed and residual use for India and less food, seed, and industrial use for Sri Lanka and Argentina. Projected 2022/23 global trade is decreased 0.3 million tons to 204.6 million as lower exports from India are not completely offset by higher exports from Russia and Uzbekistan. India’s exports are reduced 2.0 million tons to 6.5 million as the government intends to restrict exports to some destinations to ensure sufficient domestic supplies. Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 40.0 million, which would be the second largest on record. Russia’s supplies are projected higher for 2022/23 and its export prices are more competitive than most other exporters. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger beginning stocks, slightly higher use, and increased ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 45 million bushels mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021/22. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 5 million bushels as projected increases in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. These FSI use changes are carried through for 2022/23. With no other 2022/23 use changes, ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $6.75 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.3 million tons higher to 1,479.2 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Corn production is raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area based on data reported by the government. Barley production is lowered for the EU, mostly on forecast declines for Spain and France that are partially offset by an increase for Germany. Barley production for Australia and Ukraine is reduced based on declines in area. Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include larger corn imports for the EU, but reductions for Morocco, Jordan, and Peru. Barley exports are lowered for Australia, the EU, and Ukraine. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised relative to last month, mostly on increases for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn ending stocks, at 310.5 million tons, are up 5.3 million from last month.

RICE: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this month is for higher beginning and ending stocks with no other changes to the 2022/23 balance sheet. The 2022/23 all rice beginning stocks are increased 1.0 million cwt to 38.5 million, due to a combination of higher imports and lower exports in 2021/22. For 2021/22, all-rice imports are raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 35.5 million on increased shipments from Asia in the first four months of 2022 as indicated by Census data. All rice 2021/22 domestic and residual use is increased by 1.0 million cwt to 148.5 million as the increase in imports is expected to raise consumption by an equivalent amount. All rice 2021/22 exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 84.0 million (all long-grain) on a recent extremely slow pace of sales as U.S. rice prices are increasingly uncompetitive. The 2022/23 all rice season average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $17.80 per cwt, up $1.90 from the revised 2021/22 SAFP. The 2022/23 global outlook is for smaller supplies, increased consumption, unchanged trade, and lower stocks. Supplies are lowered 2.0 million tons to 702.7 million, primarily on lower beginning stocks for India that were only partly offset by larger production in India and Peru. Rice production in India for 2021/22 is raised 0.7 million tons to 129.7 million on revised estimates from the Government of India. India’s domestic consumption is raised 3.5 million tons in 2021/22 to 107.0 million on higher-than-expected use in food assistance programs. World 2022/23 consumption is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 519.2 million, mainly on increased consumption in India. Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are lowered 2.8 million tons to 183.4 million, down 4.6 million from the record high in 2020/21 and the second year of declining global stocks after consecutive year-after-year growth from 2006/07 through 2020/21.

OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 include lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices. Lower beginning stocks reflects increased exports for 2021/22. Soybean exports for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 2.17 billion reflecting strong export sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil. With reduced supplies for 2022/23 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, down 30 million. The soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month. Global oilseed production for 2022/23 is lowered 0.3 million tons to 646.8 million as lower sunflower seed is partly offset by higher rapeseed and soybean output. Sunflower seed production is lowered and soybean production is raised for Ukraine based on planting progress reports. Rapeseed production is raised for Australia on higher harvested area. Global 2022/23 soybean ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons to 100.5 million, driven mainly by higher beginning stocks for Argentina and Brazil. Argentina’s 2021/22 soybean production is raised 1.4 million tons to 43.4 million on better-than-expected reported yields. Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 126.0 million on higher area reported for Mato Grosso.

SUGAR: U.S. 2022/23 sugar supply is reduced 302,937 short tons, raw value (STRV) on lower projected production and lower beginning stocks. With no change in use, ending stocks are reduced to 962,890 STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 7.65 percent, down from 10.05 percent last month. Beginning stocks for 2022/23 are reduced by 95,850 STRV, mostly on lower beet sugar production occurring in August-September as detailed below. U.S. sugarbeet production for 2022/23 is projected at 31.032 million tons, a reduction of 7.8 percent from last month. The reduction is based on late plantings that imply a national sugarbeet yield of 27.88 tons/acre, the lowest level since 2014/15 when similar delays in planting occurred. Beet sugar production over the 2022/23 August-July crop year is projected at 4,600,931 STRV. Unchanged from last month are forecasts of area harvested (1,113,200 acres), sucrose recovery from sliced beets (14.63 percent), sugar from desugared molasses (360,000 STRV), and sugar from imported beets (30,000 STRV). Shrink is reduced to 6.576 percent on processors’ forecasts. Delayed planting implies a reduction in August-September sugar production of 100,000 STRV, now projected at 500,000. This reduction implies a decrease in fiscal year (FY) 2021/22 beet sugar production by that same amount for an estimate of 5,153,518 STRV. FY 2022/23 beet sugar production is projected at 4,809,393 STRV. Cane sugar production for 2022/23 is reduced by 27,062 STRV on lower sugarcane area harvested expected by the processor in Texas. FTA imports are raised by 10,582 STRV on revised FAS data. Cane sugar processors in Florida and Texas reduced their estimates of 2021/22 production by a combined total of 8,864 STRV. A partial offset to these decreases comes from an increase in high-tier tariff imports due to additional raw sugar imports of 13,014 STRV entering in June. Mexico production for 2021/22 is increased by 40,994 metric tons (MT) to 6,207,684 on an expected strong finish to the campaign in June and extending perhaps into July. Estimated national sugarcane yield at 68.62 MT/hectare and sucrose recovery at 11.34 percent are above recent-year averages. The pace of area harvested has picked up toward the end of the season and is estimated to finish at 797,405 hectares. The production forecast for 2022/23 at 6,000,000 MT is unchanged from last month. Deliveries for human consumption for 2021/22 are increased by 3.4 percent to 4,050,000 MT on a stronger pace compared with the weak pace of last year. The deliveries estimate is carried over to 2022/23. There are some adjustments in ending stocks and exports are residually reduced in both years to achieve supply-use balance. Export projections to the United States under license are unaffected by these changes.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2022 is raised from last month as higher beef and pork production more than offset lower poultry production. Beef production is raised with higher expected steer and heifer and cow slaughter more than offsetting lower expected carcass weights. Pork production is raised for the second quarter on the current pace of slaughter, although carcass weights are reduced slightly; no changes are made to the outlying quarters. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 29, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2023. Broiler production is reduced on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced on the current pace of slaughter. The production forecasts for 2023 for beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat are unchanged from last month. For 2022, beef exports are raised reflecting stronger sales to several markets in Asia and the strength of demand is expected to carry into early 2023. Stronger demand in several key markets support higher pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat exports forecasts for 2022; the 2023 forecasts are unchanged. For 2022, the import projection for beef is lowered, while pork imports are raised reflecting recent trade data. The 2022 cattle price forecast is unchanged from last month. Hog, broiler, and egg prices for the second quarter are lowered from last month on observed prices; no change is made to price forecasts for the outlying quarters. Second-quarter turkey prices are raised on prices to date, but no change is made to the price forecasts for the outlying quarters. No changes are made to the price forecasts for 2023. Milk production for 2022 is forecast lower than last month on slower growth in milk-per-cow than previously expected. Milk per cow is also reduced slightly for 2023, resulting in lower forecast milk production. For 2022, commercial exports on a fat basis are unchanged from last month, but skim-solids exports are raised on stronger exports of whey and lactose. For 2023, exports are raised on a fat basis due to stronger expected cheese exports but reduced on a skim-solids basis due to weaker expected sales of skim milk powder. Imports for 2022 are raised on stronger expected demand for cheese, butterfat products, and a number of other dairy products; strength in butterfat product imports is expected to carry into next year and the 2023 forecast is increased. Skim-solids imports are raised for 2022 but are unchanged for 2023. Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand. The whey price forecast is lowered on observed prices. With mostly stronger product prices, both Class III and Class IV prices are raised. The all milk price forecast is raised to $26.20 per cwt for 2022. Continued strengthening in demand, coupled with modest growth in production, is expected to support cheese, butter, and NDM prices in 2023. Thus, prices for those products are raised but whey prices are expected to remain under pressure and the forecast for 2023 is lowered. Nonetheless, the higher price for cheese more than offsets a weaker forecast whey price and the Class III price is forecast higher. Higher forecast butter and NDM prices result in a higher Class IV price. The 2023 all milk price is forecast higher at $23.80 per cwt.

COTTON: The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand projections are unchanged from last month, with the exception of a 5-cent increase in the season-average upland farm price to 95 cents per pound. A sharply higher percentage of U.S. upland area has been forward contracted for 2022/23 as of May 31, and futures prices for the post-harvest months remain strong. There are no changes to the 2021/22 U.S. balance sheet, and the projected farm price remains 92 cents. The 2022/23 world cotton balance sheet includes slightly higher production and slightly lower consumption projections compared with the previous month, and ending stocks are virtually unchanged. Production is 200,000 bales higher due to a 100,000-bale increase for Egypt along with smaller changes for West African producers. Global consumption is 450,000 bales lower, with the largest declines in Mexico, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Beginning stocks for 2022/23 are also lower this month as a 1.5-million-bale decline in 2021/22 global production more than offsets a 1.25-million-bale decline in projected consumption. A 1.0- million-bale drop in India’s crop accounts for most of the production change, with lower yield expectations in Brazil accounting for the remainder. Consumption is projected 500,000 bales lower in both China and India, with smaller declines for Mexico and Vietnam.


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