WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased production, which is up 44 million bushels to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. The first 2022 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicated a large increase from last year’s drought-reduced output at 503 million and 77 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,201 million bushels on an increase in harvested area. The 2022/23 export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million as the recent decline in U.S. prices makes exports more competitive in international markets. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $10.50 on declines in futures and cash prices. The 2022/23 global wheat outlook is for fewer supplies, reduced consumption, higher exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are reduced 1.1 million tons to 1,051.7 million as less production is partially offset by larger beginning stocks. Production is revised lower for the EU, Ukraine, and Argentina, which is only partially offset by upward revisions for Canada, the United States, and Russia. EU production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 134.1 million, as ongoing dry weather lowered yield prospects primarily in Spain, Italy, and Germany. Ukraine production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 19.5 million on a reduction in harvested area, as indicated by government statistics. Production in Canada is increased 1.0 million tons to 34.0 million on the Statistics Canada Principal Field Crop Areas survey showing higher planted area than intentions. Projected 2022/23 global trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 205.5 million as higher exports from Canada and the United States are only partially offset by lower exports from Argentina and the EU. World consumption is lowered 1.8 million tons to 784.2 million, primarily on reduced feed and residual use in the EU and Ukraine. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are raised 0.7 million tons to 267.5 million but remain the lowest since 2016/17.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021/22 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast 45 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 177.0 bushels per acre. With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.65 per bushel. This month’s 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and use, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with reductions for Russia, the EU, and Kenya partially offset by an increase for Paraguay. Russia corn production is lowered reflecting a cut in area. EU corn production is reduced with a forecast decline for Italy. For 2021/22, corn production is raised for Paraguay with increases to both area and yield. Foreign barley production for 2022/23 is lowered with reductions for Canada and the EU. Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include larger corn exports for Paraguay with a reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for Zimbabwe. Barley exports are lowered for Canada and the EU. Foreign corn ending stocks are up marginally relative to last month. Global corn stocks, at 313.0 million tons, are up 2.5 million tons relative to last month. RICE: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this month is for slightly larger supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are raised slightly as increased beginning stocks and imports more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are higher on increased imports and lower exports for 2021/22. All rice production for the 2022 crop is reduced 8.2 million cwt to 174.5 million with most of the reduction in medium- and short-grain. The NASS Acreage report showed California, the leading medium- and short-grain producing state, with the lowest rice acreage since 1958 on limited water allocations. All rice imports are raised to a record 43.0 million cwt on reduced domestic supplies of medium- and short-grain and on the trend of higher Asian aromatic long-grain imports expected to continue. Domestic and residual use is raised to 145.0 million cwt due to record imports. All rice exports are reduced 3.0 million cwt to 79.0 million on reduced supplies of U.S. grown rice. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised to 35.5 million cwt but are still down 16 percent from last year. The season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice is raised $0.40 per cwt to a record $18.20, all on a higher California medium- and short-grain SAFP. The 2022/23 global outlook is for lower supplies, consumption, and stocks with higher trade. Supplies are reduced 1.3 million tons to 701.4 million primarily on lower beginning stocks for India and Pakistan and reduced production from the EU and United States. EU production is forecast at the lowest level since 1995/96 on severe drought conditions in Italy and Spain, the two largest rice producing countries in the EU. World 2022/23 consumption is reduced by 0.6 million tons to 518.6 million, still a record. Global 2022/23 trade is raised 0.4 million tons to 54.6 million on higher exports by Pakistan and Cambodia. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced by 0.7 million tons to 182.8 million, primarily on reductions for India and Pakistan.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 132.7 million tons, down 3.9 million from last month with reductions for soybeans, canola, peanuts, and cottonseed partly offset by an increase for sunflowerseed. Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 87.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 2.6 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 51.5 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2022/23 soybean supplies are reduced 125 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal export forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2.14 billion on lower U.S. supplies, increased South American supplies, and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 230 million bushels, down 50 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.40 per bushel, down $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $390.00 per short ton, down $10.00. The soybean oil price forecast of 69.0 cents per pound is down 1 cent. The 2022/23 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is reduced 3.7 million tons to 643.1 million on lower soybean, rapeseed, cottonseed, and peanut production with higher sunflowerseed production partly offsetting. Soybean production is lowered for Canada based on the latest plantings report from Statistics Canada. European Union rapeseed production is lowered 0.4 million tons to 17.9 million based on continued dry conditions especially in France and Germany. Russian sunflowerseed production is increased 1.0 million tons to 15.5 million, mainly on higher area shown in government planting progress reports. The 2022/23 global soybean ending stocks are reduced slightly to 99.6 million tons as higher stocks for Argentina are more than offset by lower stocks for the United States, Brazil, and China. Notable changes for 2021/22 include reduced soybean crush and imports for China, and increased soybean production, imports, crush, and ending stocks for Argentina.
SUGAR: Estimated U.S. ending sugar stocks for 2021/22 are increased 64,410 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 1,781,774, as an increase in supply is only partially offset by an increase in use. USDA estimates imports to increase by 217,197 STRV. On July 1, the Department of Commerce increased the 2021/22 Mexico export limit by 135,000 STRV. This is counted as “Additional U.S. Needs Sugar” that has a polarity of less than 99.5 degrees, meaning that it is considered as raw sugar. All of this sugar is projected to enter in 2021/22. Last week USDA increased the 2021/22 raw sugar TRQ by 99,999 STRV and also extended the period for this sugar to enter the United States until the end of October. Although USTR has not yet allocated the TRQ to supplying countries, USDA projects that 38,270 STRV will enter in September for 2021/22 and 55,115 will enter in October for 2022/23 with the remainder adding to the raw sugar TRQ shortfall. USDA increased its estimate of high-tier tariff imports by 43,927 STRV to 278,436 on additional highduty raw sugar entering in June and on an increase in the expected pace of high-duty refined sugar entering for the remainder of the year. Other than imports, supply is slightly decreased by a reduction in Florida cane sugar production only partially offset by a small increase in beet sugar production as reported by processors. A partial offset to the supply increase comes from a 150,000 STRV increase in deliveries for human consumption to 12,600,000. The delivery pace for the first 8 months of the fiscal year is up 3.9 percent compared with the same period average for the 5 preceding years. The strong pace of deliveries is expected to continue into 2022/23 for a period of time and is presently projected to add 75,000 STRV to bring the total up to 12,525,000. Projected beet sugar production in 2022/23 is increased by 124,335 STRV to 4,933,728 based on the 3.1 percent increase in NASS estimated planted area in the June 30 Acreage report over that indicated in Prospective Plantings at the end of March. Most notably, area planted in the Upper Midwest is estimated 7.4 percent higher than in Prospective Plantings as additional area was planted to compensate for expected low yields due to delays in planting in May. Sugarbeet harvested area is projected at 1,146,100 acres, up 3.5 percent over last year. Yield and recovery parameters, as well as August-September production (500,000 STRV), are unchanged from last month. Imports for 2022/23 are projected at 3,501,025 STRV, an increase of 487,829 over last month. As indicated above, some of the increase is due to additional raw sugar entering in October from the increase in the 2021/22 raw sugar TRQ. Sugar entering under the 2022/23 TRQs is still projected at the minimum levels with the WTO and FTA bindings and with a raw sugar TRQ shortfall projected at 99,208 STRV. To date there has been no announcement regarding additional specialty TRQ sugar. Given these aforementioned 2022/23 projections and under the terms of the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements, sugar imported from Mexico would be expected to be projected at a level resulting in an ending U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent assuming sufficient Mexican sugar for export after meeting domestic requirements in Mexico. Because USDA is not making any changes to Mexico supply and use projections for 2022/23 at this time, the implied maximum sugar available for export to the U.S. is projected at 1,756,180 STRV. This is less than the 1,900,775 STRV needed to a result in ending stocks of 1,709,775 for a 13.5 percent stocks-to-use ratio.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is lowered slightly from last month as lower pork and broiler is partly offset by higher beef and turkey forecasts. Pork production is lowered on a slower-than-expected pace of slaughter in June and lower expected second-half carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on second quarter slaughter data but is partly offset by higher expected production in the third quarter. Beef production is raised for the second half with lower expected carcass weights and lower thirdquarter slaughter more than offset by higher fourth-quarter slaughter. Turkey production is forecast higher based on hatchery data. Egg production is raised from last month based on recent production data. For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised. Pork production is raised based on 2022 second-half farrowing intentions reported in USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, and expectations that farrowings in the first half of 2023 will be modestly higher. The beef forecast is lowered slightly on lower expected carcass weights in early 2023. USDA’s Cattle report, scheduled for July 22, will provide an indication of producer intentions for heifer retention and the 2022 calf crop. Broiler, turkey, and egg forecasts are unchanged from last month. Beef import forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are unchanged from last month while the export forecasts are raised for both years on firm international demand. Pork import forecasts are raised for both 2022 and 2023 on the current pace of trade and firm U.S. demand. Exports are reduced for 2022 but expected strength in foreign demand early in 2023 supports a slight increase in exports for that year. Broiler and turkey exports for 2022 are raised on recent data; no changes are made to 2023 forecasts. Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on reported second quarter prices and expected strength of packer demand in the third quarter; forecasts for 2023 prices are unchanged. The 2022 hog price forecast is raised on second-quarter prices, but no changes are made to secondhalf forecasts. For 2023, hog prices are lowered on the higher production forecast. The broiler price forecast for 2022 is lowered on current price data; no change is made to the 2023 broiler price forecast. Turkey price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on current prices and expectations of continued demand strength. The 2022 and 2023 egg price forecasts are raised on current price strength. Milk production forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are lowered from last month due to slower expected growth in milk per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released July 22, will provide a mid-year estimate of the dairy cow inventory and producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for dairy cow replacement. Imports on a fat basis are raised for 2022 on stronger expected imports of butterfat containing products and several other dairy products, but imports on a skim solids-basis are unchanged. No changes are made to the 2023 import forecasts of fats and skim-solids. Exports on both a skim-solids and a fat basis are also raised for 2022, reflecting stronger expected exports of butter, cheese, whey, skim milk powder, and lactose. The forecast for 2023 fat-basis exports is unchanged from last month but is raised on a skim solids-basis with expectations of higher skim milk powder exports carrying into 2023. The 2022 butter price forecast is raised from last month on firm demand, and the cheese price forecast is lowered on continued large stocks. The forecasts for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are unchanged. With a lower cheese price, the Class III price is lowered while the Class IV price is raised due to higher butter prices. The all milk price for 2022 is lowered to $26.15 per cwt. For 2023, forecasts for cheese, butter, and NDM are raised on expected lower production, but the price forecast for whey is lowered on expected weaker international prices. With higher cheese, butter prices, and NDM prices, the Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised. The 2023 all milk price forecast is raised to $24.15 per cwt.
COTTON: The U.S. 2022/23 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. While the June 30 Acreage report shows nearly 250,000 additional acres planted than in the previous NASS survey, harvested area is forecast nearly 600,000 acres lower this month. Continued below-average precipitation—primarily in Texas— means abandonment is projected higher this month, nearly 4 times the previous year’s level. U.S. production is projected 1 million bales lower than in June, at 15.5 million. U.S. exports are also projected lower, down 500,000 bales to 14.0 million reflecting both lower U.S. production and a reduction in world trade. At 2.4 million bales, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are now expected to be 1 million bales lower than in 2021/22. For the global 2022/23 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are higher than projected in June, despite a 1.2 million bale cut to expected production. Beginning stocks are higher, as 2021/22 consumption is cut nearly 2.0 million bales and projected consumption in 2022/23 is also reduced by 1.6 million. While China accounts for half of the month-to-month decline in 2021/22 consumption, the change in 2022/23 consumption is spread over 4 major consumers: China, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Brazil is the only country besides the United States to have its 2022/23 production reduced. World trade is cut 1.1 million bales, with reduced imports by China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Brazil’s exports are 500,000 bales lower, partly reflecting lower expected production there in 2021/22. Global ending stocks are projected 1.5 million bales higher than in June, and about equal to the 2021/22 level.