USDA Hog Inventory and Cattle on Feed Report

Inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2017 was 73.2 million head. This was up 2 percent from December 1, 2016, but down slightly from September 1, 2017. Breeding inventory, at 6.18 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 67.1 million head, was up 2 percent from last year, but down slightly from last quarter. The September-November 2017 pig crop, at 33.4 million head, was up 3 percent from 2016. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.11 million head, up 2 percent from 2016. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 51 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 10.74 for the September-November period, compared to 10.63 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.90 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.80 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. United States hog producers intend to have 3.07 million sows farrow during the December-February 2018 quarter, up 3 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2017, and up 5 percent from 2016. Intended farrowings for March-May 2018, at 3.08 million sows, are up 2 percent from 2017, and up 4 percent from 2016. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 47 percent of the total United States hog inventory, unchanged from the previous year. 

Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2016 through September 2017 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The net revision made to the December 2016 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.1 percent. The net revision made to the March 2017 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.4 percent. The net revision made to the June 2017 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.9 percent. A revision of 1.5 percent was made to the March-May 2017 pig crop. A revision of 0.3 percent was made to the September 2017 all hogs and pigs inventory.Cattle supplies are on track to rise more than expected in the first half of next year. 


Cattle on Feed.  The USDA says the number of cattle placed in feedlots for fattening in November rose 14% from a year earlier to 2.1M head, well above average prereport estimates of 6%. That's expected to strain cash market and futures prices when those cattle approach their requisite slaughter weights. Total cattle on feed on Dec. 1 rose 8% from a year earlier, also above expectations of 7%, while the number of cattle sent to slaughter in November matched expectations at 3%.


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