Mike Dwyer, Chief Economist for the U.S. Grains Council, made quite a prediction during a trade discussion at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit. He says U.S. ethanol exports have the potential to hit four billion gallons a year by 2020. If the American ethanol industry could export a total of four billion gallons in 2020, it would more than double the current record of 1.62 billion gallons that was set during the 2017-2018 marketing year that ended on August 31st, 2018. The Foreign Agricultural Service says U.S. ethanol was shipped to 74 countries during that time. Dwyer says the Grain Council’s global strategy does include selling ethanol to the Chinese despite the trade dispute between the two countries. China does have a 70 percent duty in place on U.S. ethanol imports. However, the country will have to figure out a way to import more foreign ethanol if the country aims to fulfill its mandate to use the E10 ethanol blend by 2020. Dwyer told Successful Farming that China could import approximately one billion gallons of ethanol to meet its mandate. If the trade issues between the U.S. and China get worked out, Dwyer says ethanol imports by China could hit 300 million gallons this year. Members of a Grains Council trade mission to China found out that Chinese gasoline retailers absolutely want to do business with the U.S. ethanol industry.
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