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(Des Moines, IA) -- The latest Leading Indicators Index in May could be a predictor of how Iowa might be able to withstand the effects of a potential national recession. Iowa's Chief Economist Robin Anderson says the increase raised just 0.1 percent in May 2022 to 110.8 (100=1999)
from 110.7 percent in April 2022. The monthly diffusion index remained unchanged at 50.0. The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.18 percent increase in May, the fourteenth month of growth in a row.
Anderson says overall that indicator remains strong due to Iowa's diversified economy. She says there are other signs of economic growth:
- Average weekly unemployment claims was the strongest contributor to the ILII in May. Changes are calculated based on a 12-month moving average and are inverted when added to the ILII. The 12-month moving average of claims decreased from 2,180 to 2,021. Unemployment claims were 57.9 percent below May 2021 claims and 50.4 percent below average historical claims for May (1988-2021).
- Diesel fuel consumption and yield spread went from positive contributors in April to detractors in May. Residential building permits and the Iowa Stock Market Index went from detractors to the index in April to positive contributors in May.
- The largest detractor from the index in May 2022 was the new orders index. The May 2022 monthly value of the new orders index decreased to 56.6 from 70.6 in April, and was substantially lower than the May 2021 value of 72.7. The 12-month moving average of the new orders index decreased to 67.0 from 68.4.