Photo: Dorwart, Mike (uploader)
OMAHA, Nebraska-- The first month of the new year isn't shaping up to be a good one for the Midwest economy.
"Below growth-neutral, lowest January recorded reading since 2008--so it was not a good month," says Creighton University Economist Ernie Goss.
He says January's nine-state Mid-America Business Conditions Index--a survey of regional business leaders--is showing negative growth for a third straight month, and eight of the past nine months.
Goss says the Midwest economy continues to be challenged by inflation, supply chain issues, labor shortages, and slow trade.
He says the Index also shows wage increases for regional workers in January was eaten up by inflation.
"Wage growth that we're seeing now, unadjusted for inflation, is 4.1 percent for the region. When we adjust for inflation, it's minus 2.2 percent," Goss says.
Looking at ahead, Goss says he isn't optimistic about the region's economy through the first six months of the year.
"Slow, to no, to negative growth. I expect it to to be about zero, in other words flat-lining, for the next quarter and probably the second quarter as well," he says.
Goss says about 60 percent of supply managers in the Index expect the economy to slump into a recession in 2023.
The Mid-America Business Conditions Index surveys of regional business leaders in Iowa, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and North Dakota.