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OMAHA, Nebraska -- A monthly survey of Midwest business leaders shows some economic improvement in the month just past, but...
"(It's) slightly better but still below growth neutral. Clearly the manufacturing economy, the regional economy is slowing down," says Creighton University Economist Ernie Goss.
He says the new nine-state Mid-America Business Conditions Index is 49.5 for August, up from 46.1 in July. An Index reading of 50 is considered growth-neutral.
Goss also says 45 percent of business leaders surveyed for the new Index are still pessimistic about the regional economy for the rest of the year.
"Forty-five percent of supply managers expect a recession in the second half of 2023. So it's looking like we're going to see some downturn in the overall growth rate and potentially a recession," he says.
As for inflation, supply managers in the August Index expect wholesale prices for the products and services their firms purchase to increase by approximately five-percent over the next 12 months.
Goss says he thinks the Federal Reserve might not be done raising interest rates as a way to ease inflation.
"I expect a quarter-percent this time, and it's likely to be the last rate hike for the year. I expect expect that to come in September," he says.
The monthly Mid-America Business Conditions Index surveys business leaders in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.